What did he know, and when did he know it?
Why does he choose to deny that he knew her status? Does anyone actually believe that?
Did he learn nothing from the example of Richard Nixon, William Jefferson Clinton, Martha Stewart et.al.?
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Taxation isn't just "Oreo Cookies"
From today's _San Jose Mercury News_ letters section:
Rich Nielsen wrote:
In case any of your readers don't quite understand what Sen. Barack Obama's "income redistribution" amounts to, here is an analogy. You study real hard and get an A in class. Some other student skips class, hardly studies and gets a D. The professor decides that there is too great a disparity between the grades in the class, so he lowers your A to a B- and raises the D to a C+ to help even things out.
Sound fair to anyone?
=======
There seems to be a great missunderstanding of the difference between "Equal Opportunity" and "Equal Results". The first is the American Ideal, the second seems to be the new way to measure progress on the first.
Results also include a component of "Effort and Ability".
Tax me too much and I'll stop working. That will reduce my taxes and sink everyone's boat.
Rich Nielsen wrote:
In case any of your readers don't quite understand what Sen. Barack Obama's "income redistribution" amounts to, here is an analogy. You study real hard and get an A in class. Some other student skips class, hardly studies and gets a D. The professor decides that there is too great a disparity between the grades in the class, so he lowers your A to a B- and raises the D to a C+ to help even things out.
Sound fair to anyone?
=======
There seems to be a great missunderstanding of the difference between "Equal Opportunity" and "Equal Results". The first is the American Ideal, the second seems to be the new way to measure progress on the first.
Results also include a component of "Effort and Ability".
Tax me too much and I'll stop working. That will reduce my taxes and sink everyone's boat.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
"Change, We Need"
Barack,
I'm confused by your signs.
Change
We Need
Is this a lame attempt at Yoda speak? Did you want to say "We need change", but wanted the "Change" part to be bigger and bolder?
In any case, "Change" is too easy and too dangerous. Different for the sake of different should not be confused with progress. Change is just entropy, not a way forward.
Your speeches frequently describe to your audience how your policies will benefit the individuals whose votes you seek.
You seem to want to invoke JFK's exhortation - "Ask not what your country can do for you, but rather ask what you can do for your country!"
When you say the words it sounds like "Ask not what you can do for your country, but rather ask what your country can do for you!."
Ask more of your government. I could support that idea.
More - efficient
More - forward thinking
More - useful
More - humanitarian
I'm confused by your signs.
Change
We Need
Is this a lame attempt at Yoda speak? Did you want to say "We need change", but wanted the "Change" part to be bigger and bolder?
In any case, "Change" is too easy and too dangerous. Different for the sake of different should not be confused with progress. Change is just entropy, not a way forward.
Your speeches frequently describe to your audience how your policies will benefit the individuals whose votes you seek.
You seem to want to invoke JFK's exhortation - "Ask not what your country can do for you, but rather ask what you can do for your country!"
When you say the words it sounds like "Ask not what you can do for your country, but rather ask what your country can do for you!."
Ask more of your government. I could support that idea.
More - efficient
More - forward thinking
More - useful
More - humanitarian
Friday, October 10, 2008
A blog you might enjoy.
For the Jesuit educated among you (and every one else too)...
http://cptdrfrtim.blogspot.com/
http://cptdrfrtim.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Fuel Economy vs. speed
Just for the record - on our recent trip -
Eastbound - speed limit and a max of 65 mph --- 18.4 mpg
Westbound - speed limit plus 5 for the most part - max 80 mph --- 17.1 mpg
Eastbound - speed limit and a max of 65 mph --- 18.4 mpg
Westbound - speed limit plus 5 for the most part - max 80 mph --- 17.1 mpg
Call me "General"
Not a military rank but rather an amateur radio license class - passed written element 3 so now I have new HF radio privileges but no radio to use them - and no place I'm allowed to put the relevant antenna (CC&R restrictions).
I'm studying the information for element 4 and hope to take that exam before too long - that would make me "amateur extra".
de
KD6CWF
I'm studying the information for element 4 and hope to take that exam before too long - that would make me "amateur extra".
de
KD6CWF
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Wii 3
We have the third Wii in the family that I know about. While I like the game system and have enjoyed getting tips about game play from my grandson, I have to say that the Nintendo marketing is even better than the game.
The purchase experience is a sustained "almost out-of-reach" condition. They seem to be perpetually "out of stock" but "will arrive soon". Call back on Wednesday morning to see if any of the pre-ordered systems are unclaimed - get here an hour before the store opens on Sunday morning and wait in line for a coupon to buy a unit.
It is pure marketing genius - generate exactly the right degree of scarcity to maximize sales and completely eliminate any sales resistance or expectation that a "sale price" might happen. Encourage the purchase of any related parts, should they happen to be in stock, because you may not see them again. If they were readily available in the stores, they would not be so successful. The scarcity adds to the mystique.
And this, all for a video game system that has a novel user interface but is otherwise rather mundane (XBox 360 and PlayStation 3 have much more capable processors and graphics hardware etc.). Perhaps the other thing setting Wii apart from the others is that Wii seems to focus on "E" rated games rather than the shoot-em-up and bad behavior games.
Wii Fit may be available Wednesday (or perhaps on June 8Th).
The only other thing that was this hard to obtain was an EV1.
But I'm up to 3/160 on the Lego Star Wars game :-)
The purchase experience is a sustained "almost out-of-reach" condition. They seem to be perpetually "out of stock" but "will arrive soon". Call back on Wednesday morning to see if any of the pre-ordered systems are unclaimed - get here an hour before the store opens on Sunday morning and wait in line for a coupon to buy a unit.
It is pure marketing genius - generate exactly the right degree of scarcity to maximize sales and completely eliminate any sales resistance or expectation that a "sale price" might happen. Encourage the purchase of any related parts, should they happen to be in stock, because you may not see them again. If they were readily available in the stores, they would not be so successful. The scarcity adds to the mystique.
And this, all for a video game system that has a novel user interface but is otherwise rather mundane (XBox 360 and PlayStation 3 have much more capable processors and graphics hardware etc.). Perhaps the other thing setting Wii apart from the others is that Wii seems to focus on "E" rated games rather than the shoot-em-up and bad behavior games.
Wii Fit may be available Wednesday (or perhaps on June 8Th).
The only other thing that was this hard to obtain was an EV1.
But I'm up to 3/160 on the Lego Star Wars game :-)
Monday, April 28, 2008
$4.759 diesel - special low sulphur
$4.759/gallon - up from $4.309/gallon 8 weeks ago. Unleaded regular is $4.009/gallon. Another price increase and I won't be able to buy 15 gallons on one $74.00 maximum fuel purchase :-(
We pay a lot extra here for our "low sulphur" diesel, now if we could just fix the volcano...
- Halema'uma'u is currently emitting 1,400 tonnes/day or 511,000 tonnes/year of SO2. Total US for all sources in 2000 was 11,202,110 and is expected to go down to 8,700,000 by 2010. When the winds are bad, the sky and the burning in my lungs reminds me of Beijing (and that isn't good).
We pay a lot extra here for our "low sulphur" diesel, now if we could just fix the volcano...
- Halema'uma'u is currently emitting 1,400 tonnes/day or 511,000 tonnes/year of SO2. Total US for all sources in 2000 was 11,202,110 and is expected to go down to 8,700,000 by 2010. When the winds are bad, the sky and the burning in my lungs reminds me of Beijing (and that isn't good).
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Lammie
Her real name was Cerise Weinberger, but I knew here as "Lammie". I have no idea where that name came from.
Lammie was our next door neighbor in San Francisco. During WWII my mom taught remedial reading at West Portal grammar school, the local public school. So Lammie was part of my child care system. Lammie was perhaps 15-20 years older than my mom and her son Casper was off in the Pacific theater. I guess a surrogate grand-baby was welcome. Casper's wife, Jane, came to live with Lammie during the war also and I know my mom and Jane became good friends.
Lammie (well I suppose they were Casper's really) had Lionel Trains in her basement, the larger "Standard Guage" ones. Neat stuff to a little kid.
Later in life when I needed a security clearance it was always a bit fun to answer questions about "who can independently verify that you were born in San Francisco and lived at ..." with - well you can ask Casper Weinberger (who was secretary of health, education, and welfare at the time - his posting as Secretary of Defense came a bit later).
The Weinbergers were our next door neighbors, but they owned three house lots, their house was on the middle of the three lots. The lot between us had a tall hedge all the way around with grass in the middle. I was allowed to play there sometimes, but this was a privilege not generally granted to the neighborhood children.
Lammie was our next door neighbor in San Francisco. During WWII my mom taught remedial reading at West Portal grammar school, the local public school. So Lammie was part of my child care system. Lammie was perhaps 15-20 years older than my mom and her son Casper was off in the Pacific theater. I guess a surrogate grand-baby was welcome. Casper's wife, Jane, came to live with Lammie during the war also and I know my mom and Jane became good friends.
Lammie (well I suppose they were Casper's really) had Lionel Trains in her basement, the larger "Standard Guage" ones. Neat stuff to a little kid.
Later in life when I needed a security clearance it was always a bit fun to answer questions about "who can independently verify that you were born in San Francisco and lived at ..." with - well you can ask Casper Weinberger (who was secretary of health, education, and welfare at the time - his posting as Secretary of Defense came a bit later).
The Weinbergers were our next door neighbors, but they owned three house lots, their house was on the middle of the three lots. The lot between us had a tall hedge all the way around with grass in the middle. I was allowed to play there sometimes, but this was a privilege not generally granted to the neighborhood children.
Mrs. Kitchens
I'm not sure where my family fit into "society". On the edge I'd guess. After all Edmund G. Brown, governor of the State of California lived a few blocks away and his son, Jerry Brown attended my grammar school. Casper Weinberger's mom lived next door.
So I went to Mrs. Kitchens after school during 7Th and 8Th grades (I think). Mrs. Kitchens was a co-ed "finishing school". We learned a bit about dancing, Waltz and Fox Trot. We learned about opening doors. We learned where to walk on a sidewalk - guy on the curb side. We learned which fork to use. All the necessary social graces. I got the impression that the girls were serious about this stuff and the boys were there because they had to be.
This was all "before women's lib' " so this stuff was considered appropriate and even necessary. It was also a way for the people in society to meet each other. Mike was good at this stuff and the contacts stayed with him. I wasn't good at this and I can't remember any of the names of the people who were there. After grammar school (8Th grade) schools were segregated - not by race, but by gender. I guess this was the last organized chance to meet people.
So I went to Mrs. Kitchens after school during 7Th and 8Th grades (I think). Mrs. Kitchens was a co-ed "finishing school". We learned a bit about dancing, Waltz and Fox Trot. We learned about opening doors. We learned where to walk on a sidewalk - guy on the curb side. We learned which fork to use. All the necessary social graces. I got the impression that the girls were serious about this stuff and the boys were there because they had to be.
This was all "before women's lib' " so this stuff was considered appropriate and even necessary. It was also a way for the people in society to meet each other. Mike was good at this stuff and the contacts stayed with him. I wasn't good at this and I can't remember any of the names of the people who were there. After grammar school (8Th grade) schools were segregated - not by race, but by gender. I guess this was the last organized chance to meet people.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Learning to drive
The Model A arrived at the JJK Rancho during my 12/13 year old summer. Mike and Tom were responsible for getting it running and for painting it red and yellow. McDonalds colors before we saw a McDonalds.
At that time the JJK Rancho was all one piece, it wasn't until later that the state put Hwy 53 through the middle of the property. That was significant because it meant that the big open field could be reached without crossing any roads and the road from the gate to the house was about 3/4 miles long. My brothers and I were "expected" to learn how to drive and to be good at it. It was never a question. I was allowed to drive down the internal gravel road to the gate and to drive around in the field. The Model A was rather easy to drive actually, and within reason, it was hard to get into much difficulty in that space. No traffic experience, but all of the starting, stopping, turning etc. that you wanted. Eventually, Aunt May would make up reasons to send me off in the A - "go down to the creek and get some gravel and fix up the road from the gate" etc. This got me familiar with all of the proceedural and mechanical aspects of driving and eventually, all of the aspects of keeping a cranky old car going.
15 1/2 => learner's permit. Driver's Education classes - after school and weekends. The instructor was Mr. Terry. We drove a dual control Ford sedan (he sat in the right front seat with a separate set of controls - steering wheel, brakes etc.). I do remember some of the theory - why you need to turn into a slide - the fastest way to go through a turn - how to judge if you should stop when a traffic signal turns yellow - and - of course - the obligatory scary movie of wrecked cars and injured/killed teenagers.
The "final exam" for the driving course was a trip across the SF Bay Bridge. This was before the bridge configuration was changed to one-way traffic on each deck. In 1960 the upper deck of the bridge was six lanes of traffic (three each way) - its only five lanes now and all the same direction. Those lanes were narrow and scary.
After this, I was really expected to drive whenever we went somewhere, either with my parents or with my Aunts. I drove the San Francisco to/from JJK Rancho trip many times.
License at 16. That involved a behind-the-wheel test in San Francisco in the '55 Oldsmobile. I think the DMV tradition was to try to fail all of the teen-age boys at least once. But I had practiced and knew what to do, so even the "parallel park on the hill" went OK and I passed the first time (my only behind the wheel test that I recall).
At that time the JJK Rancho was all one piece, it wasn't until later that the state put Hwy 53 through the middle of the property. That was significant because it meant that the big open field could be reached without crossing any roads and the road from the gate to the house was about 3/4 miles long. My brothers and I were "expected" to learn how to drive and to be good at it. It was never a question. I was allowed to drive down the internal gravel road to the gate and to drive around in the field. The Model A was rather easy to drive actually, and within reason, it was hard to get into much difficulty in that space. No traffic experience, but all of the starting, stopping, turning etc. that you wanted. Eventually, Aunt May would make up reasons to send me off in the A - "go down to the creek and get some gravel and fix up the road from the gate" etc. This got me familiar with all of the proceedural and mechanical aspects of driving and eventually, all of the aspects of keeping a cranky old car going.
15 1/2 => learner's permit. Driver's Education classes - after school and weekends. The instructor was Mr. Terry. We drove a dual control Ford sedan (he sat in the right front seat with a separate set of controls - steering wheel, brakes etc.). I do remember some of the theory - why you need to turn into a slide - the fastest way to go through a turn - how to judge if you should stop when a traffic signal turns yellow - and - of course - the obligatory scary movie of wrecked cars and injured/killed teenagers.
The "final exam" for the driving course was a trip across the SF Bay Bridge. This was before the bridge configuration was changed to one-way traffic on each deck. In 1960 the upper deck of the bridge was six lanes of traffic (three each way) - its only five lanes now and all the same direction. Those lanes were narrow and scary.
After this, I was really expected to drive whenever we went somewhere, either with my parents or with my Aunts. I drove the San Francisco to/from JJK Rancho trip many times.
License at 16. That involved a behind-the-wheel test in San Francisco in the '55 Oldsmobile. I think the DMV tradition was to try to fail all of the teen-age boys at least once. But I had practiced and knew what to do, so even the "parallel park on the hill" went OK and I passed the first time (my only behind the wheel test that I recall).
Only Child with lots of relatives
I have lots of cousins, but none close to me in age. Of all of the close relatives, my brother is closest at about 5 1/2 years older. The last time I had a relative in the same school was third grade.
I think that is one of the reasons that my aunts liked me so much - there were no other youngsters around. WWII really had an effect on my relatives.
I think that is one of the reasons that my aunts liked me so much - there were no other youngsters around. WWII really had an effect on my relatives.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
An only child with three older brothers
I thought about this while driving 5420 yesterday. I think I owe my existence and my life to Billy.
If it weren't for Billy, I think my father would have joined the Navy as a Seabee. He would probably have been somewhere in the Pacific in early 1944.
I was a small baby (about 4 pounds) and was rather sick in the hospital. I got a penicillin injection and things got much better. Sounds simple - but penicillin had JUST become available in anything other than very small quantities in the spring of 1944 and the military had taken almost all of the production for their use (remember D-Day was in 1944). If Billy hadn't died under similar circumstances, I doubt that Dr. Ferrari would have been able to pull enough strings to get the dose that saved me.
If it weren't for Billy, I think my father would have joined the Navy as a Seabee. He would probably have been somewhere in the Pacific in early 1944.
I was a small baby (about 4 pounds) and was rather sick in the hospital. I got a penicillin injection and things got much better. Sounds simple - but penicillin had JUST become available in anything other than very small quantities in the spring of 1944 and the military had taken almost all of the production for their use (remember D-Day was in 1944). If Billy hadn't died under similar circumstances, I doubt that Dr. Ferrari would have been able to pull enough strings to get the dose that saved me.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Slow Mow Day
About 2/3 to 3/4 of what I had hoped to do. Started at 10 and ended bout 6 with a break for lunch and time to fuel the tractor etc. Irregular shapes (more stops and turns) and rain off and on made the grass & guava wet and heavier.
Very nice ocean view while mowing.
Saw a VERY large pig run across the field about 200 yards away.
Very nice ocean view while mowing.
Saw a VERY large pig run across the field about 200 yards away.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
I need a more powerful tractor!
My John Deere 5420 is rated at 66 HP at the PTO (where the 7 foot rotary mower is attached).
If everything worked as planned I could mow about 3 acres/hour at a ground speed of 4 miles/hour with appropriate allowances for turning and cut overlap. Yesterday I was only able to achieve about 2 acres/hour. The field grass and guava were just too much for the machine to handle any faster.
The turbocharged version of my tractor (5520) is rated at 76 HP and the current year model (5625) is rated at 82 HP.
On the other hand, if I just mowed a bit more often, the grass and the guava wouldn't be so tall...
Another interesting factoid - the tractor consumes about 4 gallons of diesel per hour when working that hard so I'm using about 2 gallons of diesel to clear an acre (now at $4.609 a gallon).
Today's goal is about 8 acres. I better get started.
If everything worked as planned I could mow about 3 acres/hour at a ground speed of 4 miles/hour with appropriate allowances for turning and cut overlap. Yesterday I was only able to achieve about 2 acres/hour. The field grass and guava were just too much for the machine to handle any faster.
The turbocharged version of my tractor (5520) is rated at 76 HP and the current year model (5625) is rated at 82 HP.
On the other hand, if I just mowed a bit more often, the grass and the guava wouldn't be so tall...
Another interesting factoid - the tractor consumes about 4 gallons of diesel per hour when working that hard so I'm using about 2 gallons of diesel to clear an acre (now at $4.609 a gallon).
Today's goal is about 8 acres. I better get started.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
The computer memory wall
PauHana2 has replaced PauHana (12/2000). This place seems to kill computers. I have three system units here that are dead and need to be recycled.
But the point of this post is that the new computer cost so much less (about $700) than the one that it replaced (about $3,000) and why.
Computers that run the current generation of Windows (XP and Vista) cannot use more than 4GB of main memory (the actual number is less and varies from as little as about 2.5GB to about 3.25GB for reasons that relate back to the 640KB limit of the original PC that had a 1MB address space). This is bad news on many levels -
memory is cheap - even at inflated prices charged by Dell a maximum memory configuration is only about $200 - probably spent 4x that for memory last time
I can't buy more memory - as system capability grows, so does memory consumption. With IE 7 I now have about 7 window tabs open - something I would not have considered before. Digital camera images are large and camera movies are larger (I recorded an Emily howl session and the file is almost 100MB). The old rule of thumb was that the OS should take perhaps 10% of the system memory. With a "modern" system this a bit fuzzier (is IE part of the system?) so the baseline could be a bit higher. As I write this, about 50% of the memory on this system is consumed by "system" stuff. I should have at least an 8GB memory system, but I can't. If I used this system for serious work (or serious picture or video processing) 16GB or 32GB would be reasonable and would also still be within my $700 memory budget.
This memory limit is architectural and has its roots in the same problem that resulted in Eagle and FHP. The interesting thing is that all of the same issues are being played out now (about 30 years later).
Intel did their FHP thing (build a new system that is much better in many ways but completely incompatible with anything from the past). The new Intel CPU is called Itanium. Heard of it? I didn't think so.
AMD produced the Eagle equivalent (compatible extension of existing hardware). Their architecture is an extension to the x86 is designated x64. The x64 architecture won and essentially all of the Intel and AMD processors made in the last two years have this capability (support for MUCH more memory - at least 65,536 times as much and inherently faster processing).
But you still haven't heard about it and can't take advantage of this because Microsoft hasn't done a good job of making a version of Windows that can do what AOS/VS could do - run the old software and the new software on the same system at the same time. Sad really. It is an opening for someone else to attack Microsoft's hold on the market, but it looks like no one is going to take this opportunity (and the next opening won't happen for a long - long time).
But the point of this post is that the new computer cost so much less (about $700) than the one that it replaced (about $3,000) and why.
Computers that run the current generation of Windows (XP and Vista) cannot use more than 4GB of main memory (the actual number is less and varies from as little as about 2.5GB to about 3.25GB for reasons that relate back to the 640KB limit of the original PC that had a 1MB address space). This is bad news on many levels -
memory is cheap - even at inflated prices charged by Dell a maximum memory configuration is only about $200 - probably spent 4x that for memory last time
I can't buy more memory - as system capability grows, so does memory consumption. With IE 7 I now have about 7 window tabs open - something I would not have considered before. Digital camera images are large and camera movies are larger (I recorded an Emily howl session and the file is almost 100MB). The old rule of thumb was that the OS should take perhaps 10% of the system memory. With a "modern" system this a bit fuzzier (is IE part of the system?) so the baseline could be a bit higher. As I write this, about 50% of the memory on this system is consumed by "system" stuff. I should have at least an 8GB memory system, but I can't. If I used this system for serious work (or serious picture or video processing) 16GB or 32GB would be reasonable and would also still be within my $700 memory budget.
This memory limit is architectural and has its roots in the same problem that resulted in Eagle and FHP. The interesting thing is that all of the same issues are being played out now (about 30 years later).
Intel did their FHP thing (build a new system that is much better in many ways but completely incompatible with anything from the past). The new Intel CPU is called Itanium. Heard of it? I didn't think so.
AMD produced the Eagle equivalent (compatible extension of existing hardware). Their architecture is an extension to the x86 is designated x64. The x64 architecture won and essentially all of the Intel and AMD processors made in the last two years have this capability (support for MUCH more memory - at least 65,536 times as much and inherently faster processing).
But you still haven't heard about it and can't take advantage of this because Microsoft hasn't done a good job of making a version of Windows that can do what AOS/VS could do - run the old software and the new software on the same system at the same time. Sad really. It is an opening for someone else to attack Microsoft's hold on the market, but it looks like no one is going to take this opportunity (and the next opening won't happen for a long - long time).
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
FHP - part 1
I thought you might like to know where "System Software" for FHP in _The Soul of a New Machine_ ended up.
You might remember FHP was the North Carolina based Data General project that was the competition for the system I worked on. FHP was the project that remained 18 months from delivery for its entire lifetime.
"System Software" for FHP was Craig Mundie who is now the Chief Research and Strategy Officer for Microsoft. He has been with Microsoft since 1992. See:
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/exec/craig/default.mspx
I guess being responsible for a project that never ships isn't a career death sentence!
You might remember FHP was the North Carolina based Data General project that was the competition for the system I worked on. FHP was the project that remained 18 months from delivery for its entire lifetime.
"System Software" for FHP was Craig Mundie who is now the Chief Research and Strategy Officer for Microsoft. He has been with Microsoft since 1992. See:
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/exec/craig/default.mspx
I guess being responsible for a project that never ships isn't a career death sentence!
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
High School Chemistry again.
I'd recommend that you re-read the "High School before Zero Tolerance" post with attention to item 3) and then read:
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/06/second_movieplo.html
Schneier has published several quite readable books about computer security and security generally. He writes a free monthly newsletter:
CRYPTO-GRAM is a free monthly newsletter providing summaries, analyses, insights, and commentaries on security: computer and otherwise. You can subscribe, unsubscribe, or change your address on the Web at <http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram.html>. Back issues are also available at that URL.
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/06/second_movieplo.html
Schneier has published several quite readable books about computer security and security generally. He writes a free monthly newsletter:
** *** ***** ******* *********** *************
CRYPTO-GRAM is a free monthly newsletter providing summaries, analyses, insights, and commentaries on security: computer and otherwise. You can subscribe, unsubscribe, or change your address on the Web at <http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram.html>. Back issues are also available at that URL.
TDRF
Target Date Retreat Factor - a measure of the change in schedule for a project over time.
Schedules often "slip". When the slip is enough to keep the expected project delivery about the same distance in the future, then the TDRF is 1.0 (as in "FHP will be delivered in 18 months", that was the schedule in 1978, 1979 and 1980 - see _The Soul of a New Machine_).
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner seems to have a TDRF of about 0.5
A project that is on schedule, and stays on schedule would have a TDRF of 0.0.
It is theoretically possible for a project to have a negative TDRF. This would indicate a project that was delivered early.
Schedules often "slip". When the slip is enough to keep the expected project delivery about the same distance in the future, then the TDRF is 1.0 (as in "FHP will be delivered in 18 months", that was the schedule in 1978, 1979 and 1980 - see _The Soul of a New Machine_).
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner seems to have a TDRF of about 0.5
A project that is on schedule, and stays on schedule would have a TDRF of 0.0.
It is theoretically possible for a project to have a negative TDRF. This would indicate a project that was delivered early.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Why we need the Electoral College
Because you and I and the courts and the politicians can all be expected to count to 270 and get close to the same result.
None of us can reasonably be expected to count 120,000,000 anythings with absolute precision.
If the election is really close, the country is better off with a stable and predictable result. A full nation-wide recount would be a disaster. Think of the Florida debacle, but everywhere at once.
The current model means that precision in counting is only needed in the places where the vote will be close (which is far fewer places than all of the states). It also means that there is no value to voter fraud is a completely red or blue state because once the electoral votes for that state are set, changing the majority has no effect.
If we had a nationwide popular vote, then vote padding (think of the Chicago machine politics and "vote early and often") would actually have meaning and vote fraud is easier where the outcome isn't in question.
Would I change anything? Yes, since the Electoral College votes are based on Senate and House representation, I'd have the 435 votes based on congressional delegation districts counted by the majority in that district rather than the count in the state as a whole. That would increase the chances of a politician visiting California (for example) where the state is "Blue", but not all of the districts are, because it means that all of the congressional districts that are "in play" for the House are probably also "in play" for the Presidential election.
Would a district apportioned Electoral College have changed any of the elections? I've not seen any research.
What is needed to make the change in a state from "winner take all" to a "winner by district" apportionment of Electoral College votes? This is a state issue and not part of the federal constitution (I believe) so it could happen one state at a time. Aren't there one or two that do that now?
None of us can reasonably be expected to count 120,000,000 anythings with absolute precision.
If the election is really close, the country is better off with a stable and predictable result. A full nation-wide recount would be a disaster. Think of the Florida debacle, but everywhere at once.
The current model means that precision in counting is only needed in the places where the vote will be close (which is far fewer places than all of the states). It also means that there is no value to voter fraud is a completely red or blue state because once the electoral votes for that state are set, changing the majority has no effect.
If we had a nationwide popular vote, then vote padding (think of the Chicago machine politics and "vote early and often") would actually have meaning and vote fraud is easier where the outcome isn't in question.
Would I change anything? Yes, since the Electoral College votes are based on Senate and House representation, I'd have the 435 votes based on congressional delegation districts counted by the majority in that district rather than the count in the state as a whole. That would increase the chances of a politician visiting California (for example) where the state is "Blue", but not all of the districts are, because it means that all of the congressional districts that are "in play" for the House are probably also "in play" for the Presidential election.
Would a district apportioned Electoral College have changed any of the elections? I've not seen any research.
What is needed to make the change in a state from "winner take all" to a "winner by district" apportionment of Electoral College votes? This is a state issue and not part of the federal constitution (I believe) so it could happen one state at a time. Aren't there one or two that do that now?
Saturday, April 12, 2008
You know diesel is expensive when
a high quality 5 gallon container costs $13.95 and the fuel to fill it costs $22.80.
Yes, diesel is $4.559 - it was $4.309 a month ago.
Yes, diesel is $4.559 - it was $4.309 a month ago.
Friday, April 11, 2008
When a politician says "fight"
As in "I'll fight for you" in some way it seems that the speaker is most often of the "Democratic Party" persuasion. Is that your observation too, or am I just mistaken.
"Fight" isn't something I'd like to see my government representative do. "Work" would seem to be a better word choice.
"Fight" isn't something I'd like to see my government representative do. "Work" would seem to be a better word choice.
Multiple Choice Exams.
I've taken lots and lots of multiple choice exams. Do or Die high school entrance exam, most of my tests in high school, PSAT (several times), SAT, entrance exam for the California Maritime Academy (to keep a scared neighbor company), lots of tests in college, GRE, PhD qualifying exams etc.
The result of all of that "training" taught me that you either know the answer to a question or you don't. If you don't know the answer either guess or move on. But that misses an important point, if you don't know the answer you can figure it out or look it up etc. with enough effort and time. Multiple choice exams never rewarded the ability to study or work out the answer during the exam. Accomplish something with persistent and sustained effort? That is a new concept that I'm beginning to learn as I try to remove 100 acres of pest guava.
The result of all of that "training" taught me that you either know the answer to a question or you don't. If you don't know the answer either guess or move on. But that misses an important point, if you don't know the answer you can figure it out or look it up etc. with enough effort and time. Multiple choice exams never rewarded the ability to study or work out the answer during the exam. Accomplish something with persistent and sustained effort? That is a new concept that I'm beginning to learn as I try to remove 100 acres of pest guava.
Luke's
A nice place to have dinner, B-I-L plays guitar there on Thursday night - sounds great!
Wait, what is that sound? That's not guitar! Who knew that there would be a Rock-Paper-Scissors contest? The winner of the Bud Light contest at Luke's gets to compete in Kona for a chance to go on to the finals in Las Vegas.
The food was good, the music was good between sessions in the contest and the company was wonderful.
Wait, what is that sound? That's not guitar! Who knew that there would be a Rock-Paper-Scissors contest? The winner of the Bud Light contest at Luke's gets to compete in Kona for a chance to go on to the finals in Las Vegas.
The food was good, the music was good between sessions in the contest and the company was wonderful.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
The Model A wasn't that old.
We acquired the "A" in about 1956 for $50. At that point it was about 27 years old, so think of the '78 Suburban which would now be a bit over 30 years old.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
High School before Zero Tolerance
Remember that I was in High School from 1958 to 1962 and most of these things happend Junior year. If you tried this stuff today you'd get suspended, expelled or jailed.
Explosive - Chemistry class - Since I would later major in Chemistry in college it would not be a surprise that this was a "good" class for me. One of the things that the teachers learned was that the best way to deal with a student who is ahead of the rest of the class is to give them something to do. It turns out that it is relatively simple to make a contact explosive. This stuff is safe when it is wet but when it dries out it will explode with the slightest touch or vibration. It makes a nice little popping sound - a bit like a cap pistol (do those still exist?). What can you do with this material?
1) Exploding chalk. Drill a small hole in the end of a piece of chalk, put the material in the hole, put some chalk dust on the end and then make sure that this is the only piece of chalk available at the blackboard for some other class. Writing on the blackboard with the chalk is enough to set it off... Some of the non-science teachers were quite surprised.
2) Convert a starch, water and yeast into C2H5OH (ethanol to you mere mortals). With the right distilling aparatus you can make a sufficiently concentrated mixture such that the product will burn (about 120 proof I recall). Our product was taste tested by the school principal and by the prefect of discipline (so you could say that they knew what we were doing).
3) (2Na +2 H2O -> 2NaOH + H2 and energy). We obtained a lump of sodium about the size of a sugar cube and conducted this experiment in a pond in Golden Gate Park. The sodium had an oily coating, so at first nothing much happened. When the oil dispersed the lump would sink, then bubble up to the surface releasing the hydrogen. Since it was hot enough the hydrogen then reacted with the oxygen in the air forming water. Nice sound and light show!
4) Contact Explosive - the substance in #1 can also be placed on stair treads (the school classroom building was 3 stories tall). If you time it right, the material will be dry when the next class change occurs and shoes on the stair treads will set the contact explosive off. Did I mention it makes a nice purplish smoke?
5) Contact Explosive - also works on the wheels of teacher desk chairs.
Explosive - Chemistry class - Since I would later major in Chemistry in college it would not be a surprise that this was a "good" class for me. One of the things that the teachers learned was that the best way to deal with a student who is ahead of the rest of the class is to give them something to do. It turns out that it is relatively simple to make a contact explosive. This stuff is safe when it is wet but when it dries out it will explode with the slightest touch or vibration. It makes a nice little popping sound - a bit like a cap pistol (do those still exist?). What can you do with this material?
1) Exploding chalk. Drill a small hole in the end of a piece of chalk, put the material in the hole, put some chalk dust on the end and then make sure that this is the only piece of chalk available at the blackboard for some other class. Writing on the blackboard with the chalk is enough to set it off... Some of the non-science teachers were quite surprised.
2) Convert a starch, water and yeast into C2H5OH (ethanol to you mere mortals). With the right distilling aparatus you can make a sufficiently concentrated mixture such that the product will burn (about 120 proof I recall). Our product was taste tested by the school principal and by the prefect of discipline (so you could say that they knew what we were doing).
3) (2Na +2 H2O -> 2NaOH + H2 and energy). We obtained a lump of sodium about the size of a sugar cube and conducted this experiment in a pond in Golden Gate Park. The sodium had an oily coating, so at first nothing much happened. When the oil dispersed the lump would sink, then bubble up to the surface releasing the hydrogen. Since it was hot enough the hydrogen then reacted with the oxygen in the air forming water. Nice sound and light show!
4) Contact Explosive - the substance in #1 can also be placed on stair treads (the school classroom building was 3 stories tall). If you time it right, the material will be dry when the next class change occurs and shoes on the stair treads will set the contact explosive off. Did I mention it makes a nice purplish smoke?
5) Contact Explosive - also works on the wheels of teacher desk chairs.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Cars - Continued
Most Hated - This isn't an emotion that I'd usually admit to. The '90 Sable was GreenBarn's car to drive. It failed her more than any of the others and that can't be popular with the GreenTractor repair service. Also, the power steering had repeated problems - not a part of the car about which I'd have much tolerance for failure.
Least Favorite - Many of the entries in the fleet were "utility" cars - not special, but OK. I'd guess that the '90 Sable was the one that I was happiest to see go.
Most Favorite - The '29 Ford Model A will always have a special place in my heart. It was my "learing to drive" car and since it was old, simple, and unreliable it was the car that was my "classroom" for learning how to repair a car. The '63 Corvair was "my" first car. GreenBarn and I went on dates in that car. The '85 Fiero was fun to drive. Noisy inside and expensive (I've been doing dishes ever since). The '97 GM EV1 was a real treat to have. It was a real experience having to "qualify" to be "allowed" to have an EV1.
The "Best" car - I'd have to say that the '07 Prius fits that catagory.
The one I'd still like to have for a daily driver - '97 GM EV1.
Least Favorite - Many of the entries in the fleet were "utility" cars - not special, but OK. I'd guess that the '90 Sable was the one that I was happiest to see go.
Most Favorite - The '29 Ford Model A will always have a special place in my heart. It was my "learing to drive" car and since it was old, simple, and unreliable it was the car that was my "classroom" for learning how to repair a car. The '63 Corvair was "my" first car. GreenBarn and I went on dates in that car. The '85 Fiero was fun to drive. Noisy inside and expensive (I've been doing dishes ever since). The '97 GM EV1 was a real treat to have. It was a real experience having to "qualify" to be "allowed" to have an EV1.
The "Best" car - I'd have to say that the '07 Prius fits that catagory.
The one I'd still like to have for a daily driver - '97 GM EV1.
Cars
Cars are a big part of our lives and often mark important milestones. Here is a list of the ones I remember:
1940 DeSoto (1940-1950) The family car when I was born.
1950 Oldsmobile (1950-1952) The family flew to Lansing Michigan to pick this up at the factory!
1952 Oldsmobile (1952-1955) Bought a new car because it was "expected".
1955 Oldsmobile (1955-1962) GM was at its peak. Probably the "best" one. I drove this one.
1929 Ford Model A (1957-19xx) JJK Rancho truck - red & yellow - I learned to drive with this one. Stolen.
1962 Oldsmobile (1962-1970) Last of my parents cars - a GM "compact".
=========
1963 Corvair (1965-1968) My first car! A white convertible, red interior.
1967 Falcon (1967-1982) Our first car. First "new" car. Bought this shortly before we were married.
1965 Corvair (1968-1970) Replaced the white Corvair. "Brownie" was also a convertible.
1972 Chevrolet Vega (1972-1980) A low point for GM. Lots of UAW "mistakes". My commute car.
1978 Suburban (1978-1995) Our family traveling machine. Driver training car.
1980 Chevrolet Chevette (1980-1988) Yellow
1985 Pontiac Fiero (1985-1998) Fun 2 seater. My commute car. This one was very "expensive" - I've been doing dinner dishes ever since.
1988 Chevrolet Nova (1988-1995) This was a NUMI car. "Almost" a non-GM and non-UAW car.
1990 Mercury Sable (1990-1995) Notable as the first automatic transmission car in our fleet.
1995 Mercury Mystique (1995-2007)
1995 Suburban (1995-) Now in Hawi.
1997 GM EV1 (1998-2000) An Electric Car! No gasoline - ever. Recalled before the end of the lease by GM to fix a charge port problem.
1999 GM EV1 (1999-2002) NiMH batteries - range about 100 miles. Crushed by GM at the end of the lease
1997 GM EV1 (2001-2003) We got the '97 back after about 18 months when the recall work was finished. I really liked this car. It proved that a battery electric car was fully functional. Crushed by GM at the end of the lease.
2002 John Deere model 5420 Tractor (2002-)
2003 Suburban (2003-) Our "road trip" car.
2004 Prius (2004-) Hawi. First non-UAW vehicle.
2000 Ford Ranger EV (2005-) Factory built Electric. One of the "rescued" Rangers.
2007 Prius (2007-)
1940 DeSoto (1940-1950) The family car when I was born.
1950 Oldsmobile (1950-1952) The family flew to Lansing Michigan to pick this up at the factory!
1952 Oldsmobile (1952-1955) Bought a new car because it was "expected".
1955 Oldsmobile (1955-1962) GM was at its peak. Probably the "best" one. I drove this one.
1929 Ford Model A (1957-19xx) JJK Rancho truck - red & yellow - I learned to drive with this one. Stolen.
1962 Oldsmobile (1962-1970) Last of my parents cars - a GM "compact".
=========
1963 Corvair (1965-1968) My first car! A white convertible, red interior.
1967 Falcon (1967-1982) Our first car. First "new" car. Bought this shortly before we were married.
1965 Corvair (1968-1970) Replaced the white Corvair. "Brownie" was also a convertible.
1972 Chevrolet Vega (1972-1980) A low point for GM. Lots of UAW "mistakes". My commute car.
1978 Suburban (1978-1995) Our family traveling machine. Driver training car.
1980 Chevrolet Chevette (1980-1988) Yellow
1985 Pontiac Fiero (1985-1998) Fun 2 seater. My commute car. This one was very "expensive" - I've been doing dinner dishes ever since.
1988 Chevrolet Nova (1988-1995) This was a NUMI car. "Almost" a non-GM and non-UAW car.
1990 Mercury Sable (1990-1995) Notable as the first automatic transmission car in our fleet.
1995 Mercury Mystique (1995-2007)
1995 Suburban (1995-) Now in Hawi.
1997 GM EV1 (1998-2000) An Electric Car! No gasoline - ever. Recalled before the end of the lease by GM to fix a charge port problem.
1999 GM EV1 (1999-2002) NiMH batteries - range about 100 miles. Crushed by GM at the end of the lease
1997 GM EV1 (2001-2003) We got the '97 back after about 18 months when the recall work was finished. I really liked this car. It proved that a battery electric car was fully functional. Crushed by GM at the end of the lease.
2002 John Deere model 5420 Tractor (2002-)
2003 Suburban (2003-) Our "road trip" car.
2004 Prius (2004-) Hawi. First non-UAW vehicle.
2000 Ford Ranger EV (2005-) Factory built Electric. One of the "rescued" Rangers.
2007 Prius (2007-)
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